PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation [PRCT] · Equity Underwriting Memo

Catalysts

PROCEPT BioRobotics [PRCT] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — it informs monitoring, and blocks nothing.

Every dated item below is sourced. Where no date is disclosed, the row says so and no date is invented. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.


Dated — confirmed

Date Event Source Why it matters
Tue 4 Aug 2026, AMC 4:30pm ET Q2 2026 results + conference call Company press release dated 2026-07-14 The whole thesis. First quarter with handpiece:procedure at ~100%; Q2 procedure count tests the FY26 guide; second guidance reiteration (or cut); first print after the class actions.
~mid-Aug 2026 Q2 2026 Form 10-Q Three-year pattern: 10-Qs filed 2025-08-07, 2025-11-05, 2026-04-30 — 1–7 days after the release Carries the operating cash flow line, which is where Downside Cause B is falsified. Also the by-type revenue disaggregation, which the release publishes too.
1 Jan 2026 — already live CPT 52597 (Category I) replaced Category III 0421T; ~$540 national average physician payment (16.14 RVUs); APC 5377 assigned for ASC 2026 Medicare PFS and OPPS/ASC final rules FY2026 is the first full year under a Category I code with an ASC pathway. Structurally the largest reimbursement upgrade available to this product — and it is already in the base.
Apr 2026 — already occurred FirstAssist AI (2nd gen) FDA clearance Q1'26 earnings release, 2026-04-29 Software on the HYDROS base; supports ASP and the "AI-powered" positioning. Not separately monetised in any disclosure.
26 Feb 2026 — already occurred Investor Day, NASDAQ HQ, New York Q4'25 earnings release The reset was framed there. Referenced for context.

Dated — by established filing pattern, not by announcement

Expected Event Basis Confidence
~late Oct / early Nov 2026 Q3 2026 results Q3 releases: 2024-10-28, 2025-11-04 High on the window, not announced
~late Feb 2027 Q4/FY2026 results and FY2027 guidance Q4 releases: 2025-02-25, 2026-02-25 High on the window, not announced. The FY27 guide is the second-largest event on this calendar.
~late Feb 2027 FY2026 Form 10-K 10-Ks filed 2025-02-27, 2026-02-26 High on the window
~Apr–Jun 2027 Annual meeting / proxy DEF 14A 2025-04-25, 2026-04-22; meeting 2026-06-09 Moderate

Undated — real, but no date is disclosed

Event Status Note
WATER IV prostate-cancer trial readout Enrolling; funding explicitly increased in FY25 and Q1'26 opex commentary No readout date, interim analysis date, or enrolment-completion date is disclosed in any filing or release reviewed. None is asserted. This is the largest genuinely undated upside optionality in the name — an indication expansion beyond BPH.
ASC channel commercialisation Payment pathway exists (APC 5377, since Jan 2026); management deprioritised it near-term CEO, Q4'25 call: "I don't think it's something that's so much of a near-term thing for us." "Ambulatory surgery" appears zero times across all ten quarterly releases Q4'23 → Q1'26. Any first mention is itself the catalyst.
Securities class actions Filed July 2026; class period 28 Feb 2024 – 25 Feb 2026 No 8-K disclosing them as of 2026-07-28. Lead-plaintiff deadlines, consolidation and motion-to-dismiss dates are not established in any source reviewed. Monitor 8-K and the Q2 10-Q's contingencies note.
International reimbursement expansion UK and Japan direct sales forces were expanded "following recent reimbursement decisions" 10-K. No further decisions dated. OUS is 13% of revenue and grew 25% in Q1'26 — the fastest-growing geography.

Monitoring instrument — what to read, and where

The four numbers that resolve this thesis are all in the quarterly release, not in the 10-Q:

Metric Where Q1'26 reading The number that matters
US procedures "QUARTERLY U.S. INSTALL BASE AND PROCEDURES" table 12,200 Sequential growth. Flat twice = Downside Cause A.
Handpieces sold as % of procedures Bullet in the release body ~95% ≥100% = destock complete.
Systems placed / ending install base Same table 47 / 765 Placement growth was +12% YoY in Q1'26.
Procedures ÷ average install base Derived 16.5/qtr (vs 17.8 in Q4'25, and 67–71/yr flat since FY23) Rising above 18.0 for two quarters is the single most bullish datapoint available.

Plus, from the 10-Q: net cash provided by / used in operating activities (Q1'26: −$38.1m).


Calendar shape

The name is catalyst-dense at the front and sparse behind it: one dominant event in six days, a confirming/refuting print in three months, and then nothing scheduled until the FY27 guide in seven months. Time works for a long — Catalyst Criteria does not require a dated event to own a compounder — but on PRCT the information arrives in discrete quarterly steps and the intervening periods have historically been de-rating drift (median monthly EV/Sales fell in ten of the last twelve month-over-month steps, 12.18x in Jul-2025 to 2.80x in Jul-2026).